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中国人民银行预测明年GDP增速下跌至6.8%

China's annual economic growth likely to slow to 6.8 percent next year

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核心提示:中国人民银行在本周三发布的工作文件中称,明年中国经济的年增长率将由今年预计的6.9%下跌至6.8%。
中国人民银行在本周三发布的工作文件中称,明年中国经济的年增长率将由今年预计的6.9%下跌至6.8%。
央行在研究报告中提到,世界第二大经济体仍然面临着下行压力,并且今年铺展开的财政和货币政策会在2016年上半年会逐渐显现效果。
报告原文说:“尽管由产能过剩、利润减速、不良贷款增加等因素引起的增长下行压力还将持续一段时间,我们期望有利因素的数目会在2016年逐渐增加。”

 

央行报告称,最近的人民币实际有效汇率的增值给中国出口带来压力;并补充说保持人民币贸易加权兑换率相对稳定有利于出口增长。
同时,政府顶级智囊团中国社科院在其蓝皮书中预测,由于外部需求疲软以及国内投资降温,2016年经济增长会更加缓慢,增速徘徊在6.6%到6.8%之间。
中科院建议中国政府在明年应该将财政赤字由原计划的1.62万亿元扩大到2.12万亿元,使其在警戒水平3%之内与GDP持平。
中科院的经济学家李雪松在新闻发布会上说:“在经济面临下行和通缩压力之际,中国很有必要增加财政政策的力度。”
上月,中国财政部副部长朱光耀说全世界的经济学家们应该重新考虑究竟是什么组成了赤字占GDP比率的危险地带。在评论中,有些分析员认为这些话是更加激进的刺激手段的先兆。
自全球经济危机迈入严峻阶段,中国政府已经释放出最激进的政策。其中包括自2014年11月来的六次下调利率来下注刺激今年的经济增长目标保持在7%左右。
由央行首席经济学家马俊和其他央行经济学家撰写的报告提到,在产权投资逐渐趋于稳定之际,央行期望中国的固定资产能够自今年起在2016年增长10.8%。固定资产额是国家经济关键驱动力之一。
报告称,作为国内消费的关键衡量指标,中国的零售销售额在明年能够实现增长11.1%的年增长率。
央行在预测中提到,2016年,中国年出口额预计会上升3.1%,而进口额会上升2.3%。
有别于今年预测的1.5%,2016年中国的年度通货膨胀会加速上升至1.7%;而生产价格指数则预计会下跌1.8%,较2015年预测的5.2%下跌较缓。(中国进出口网

 

China's annual economic growth is likely to slow to 6.8 percent next year from an expected 6.9 percent this year, the People's Bank of China said in a working paper published on Wednesday.

The world's second-largest economy still faces downward pressure and the impact of fiscal and monetary policies that were rolled out this year will be evident by the first half of 2016, the central bank said in the research report.
"Although downward pressures on growth will persist for a while due to overcapacity, profit deceleration, and rising non-performing loans, we expect that the number of positive factors will gradually increase in 2016," it said.

中国人民银行预测明年GDP增速下跌至6.8%

Recent appreciation in the yuan's real effective exchange rate (REER) has put pressure on China's exports, the central bank report said, adding that keeping the yuan's trade-weighted exchange rate relatively stable could help exports.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a top government think tank, predicted in its "blue book" the economy could expand at a slower pace between 6.6 percent and 6.8 percent in 2016 due to weak external demand and cooling domestic investment.
The think tank recommended that China should widen its fiscal deficit to 2.12 trillion yuan ($327.6 billion) next year from a planned 1.62 trillion yuan in 2015, keeping the deficit to GDP ratio within the warning level of 3 percent.
"It's quite necessary for China to increase strength on its fiscal policy as the economy faces downward and deflation pressure," said Li Xuesong, an economist at CASS, told a media conference.
China's Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said last month that economists the world over should reconsider what constitutes a danger zone for deficit-to-GDP ratios, in comments that some analysts took as a hint of more aggressive stimulus to come.
The government has embarked on its most aggressive policy easing since the depths of the global financial crisis, including six interest rate cuts since November 2014, in a bid to hit its economic growth target of around 7 percent this year.
The central bank expects China's fixed-asset investment, a key driver of the economy, to grow 10.8 percent in 2016 from this year, as property investment gradually stablises, according to the report written by Ma Jun, the bank's chief economist, and other central bank economists.
China's retail sales, a key gauge of domestic consumption, could grow an annual 11.1 percent next year, it said.
China's exports are expected to rise an annual 3.1 percent in 2016 while imports are forcast to grow 2.3 percent, the PBOC said in its projections.
China's annual consumer inflation may quicken to 1.7 percent in 2016 from an expected 1.5 percent this year. The producer price index is forecast to fall 1.8 percent in 2016, moderating from an expected 5.2 percent drop in 2015.
 

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