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2016年的第一个交易日全球股市剧烈震荡

Stocks worldwide tumbles in first trading day of 2016

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核心提示:Stocks worldwide tumbled in the first trading day of 2016, as fresh fears about a slowdown in China’s economy ignited concerns about global growth.

2016年的第一个交易日,全球股市剧烈震荡。对中国经济放缓的新的忧虑激起了对全球经济增长的担心。

本周一的抛售风潮始于亚洲,引发因素是中国制造业数据疲软及该国货币的持续走弱。这股风潮蔓延到欧洲和美国,在那里,中东紧张局势的升级还加剧了市场的不安情绪。

几个月来,全球投资者对中国的经济前景越来越担心,一直小心关注着该国的状况。去年夏天,中国一度高企的股市出现暴跌,人民币也突然贬值,引发了世界范围内的剧烈震荡。

同样的问题延续到了2016年。本周一的一份报告显示,中国制造业再度萎缩。人民币显得摇摇欲坠。

不过,投资者中还增添了一层新的忧虑。中国在去年的市场震荡之后出台了一些措施来稳定股市,但这些措施正在加剧中国的抛售风潮。

“这将是今年的主题,”汇丰亚洲证券策略师德文德拉·乔希(Devendra Joshi)表示。“波动性将会加大。”

本周一,几乎所有市场都未能幸免。

上海综合指数下挫6.9%。亚洲股市普遍收跌,日本的日经225股指和香港的恒生指数双双下跌约3%。

标准普尔500指数当日收低1.5%。纳斯达克指数跌2.1%。

在欧洲,Euro Stoxx 50指数下跌3.1%。伦敦富时100指数在矿业公司股价的带动下收跌2.4%。中国经济放缓对这类企业造成了沉重打击。

对全球投资者而言,中国是经济增长拼图中关键的一块。作为第二大经济体,中国推动着全球大宗商品、消费品和其他产业的需求。

该国政府一直试图用经济刺激和提高利率的举措来推动增长。政府还运用充裕的外汇储备,来试图控制人民币汇率的下滑。此外,政府还采取了一系列激进的政策举措,试图支撑股市。

但最近的经济数据,以及随之而来的股市动荡让市场开始怀疑,上述举动是否有效。

尽管政府采取了诸多举措,中国的制造业还是一直稳步收缩了10个月。财新发布的12月采购经理指数下降到了48.2,明显低于预期且低于11月的数字。在这项指数里,低于50的数字意味着收缩。

世界各地的大宗商品生产商对中国的需求尤其感到担忧,它们业已受到该国经济放缓的拖累。周一,英美资源集团(Anglo American)股价收市下挫近7%,嘉能可(Glencore)股价则下挫5.8%。

人民币的贬值压力进一步加大了投资者的担忧。

由于中国经济乏力,中国企业和个人纷纷在海外寻找机遇,资金外流给人民币汇率构成压力。此外,美联储(Federal Reserve)提高利率的举动也让局面更加复杂,因为这样一来将资金兑换为美元就更有吸引力了。

尽管中国央行发出信号,表示愿意让人民币走软,但它仍需控制下滑的幅度,否则就会让市场感到惊慌。周一,央行将人民币汇率设定在了2011年5月以来的最低水平。

“中国人民银行在让人民币汇率走向完全灵活的过程中,需要很谨慎,”澳新银行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)大中华区首席经济学家刘利刚表示。“不能让市场认定人民币一定会走向贬值。如果我们那样做,就会遭遇去年下半年那种失控的局面。”

政府稳定股价的方案也促进了股市的抛售。

周一生效的一项新规则要求,蓝筹股组成的沪深300指数在一个交易日内下跌5%时,内地主要股市就要暂停交易。这种熔断机制周一就被触发了,导致交易暂停。

分析人士表示,由于发生交易暂停,投资者之后再接着抛售股票,就导致当日交易终止。由于交易已经终止,如果投资者继续紧张,可能就意味着未来会发生更多损失。

一则有效期为半年的禁令将于本周末到期,该指令禁止大股东减持中国上市公司的股票。去年夏天颁布这条禁令的意图是稳定股价。但现在,它可能产生了负面的效果,让那些持股较少的股东在大股东之前抛售。

交银国际(Bank of Communications International)首席策略师洪灝预测,2016年开局不利的势头可能会继续下去。

“波动往往会引发进一步波动。蔓延到其他资产种类的可能性很大,”他说。“鉴于我们经历了如此剧烈的波动,目前还远远没有见底,尤其是现在基本面看起来很糟糕。”

Stocks worldwide tumbled in the first trading day of 2016, as fresh fears about a slowdown in China’s economy ignited concerns about global growth.

The sell-off started in Asia on Monday, triggered by weak manufacturing data for China and continued weakness in the country’s currency. The turmoil spread to Europe and the United States, where the escalation of Middle East tensions added to market jitters.

Global investors have been watching China warily for months, as they grow increasingly concerned about the country’s economic outlook. Last summer, a slump in the country’s once highflying market and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese renminbi set off turbulence around the world.

The same themes are carrying over into 2016. A report on Monday showed that the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted again. The Chinese renminbi looked shaky.

But there is a new twist to investors’ anxieties. Measures to help steady stocks that were put in place after last year’s market turmoil are exacerbating the sell-off in China.

“This will be the theme for the year,” said Devendra Joshi, an HSBC Asia equity strategist. “There will be more volatility.”

Few markets escaped the mess.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 6.9 percent on Monday. Asian stocks broadly were down, with the Nikkei 225-share index in Japan and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong both finishing the day about 3 percent lower.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was off 1.5 percent for the day. The Nasdaq was down 2.1 percent.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 3.1 percent. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 2.4 percent, pulled down by shares of mining companies that were hit hard by China’s slowdown.

For global investors, China is a critical piece of the growth puzzle. As the second-largest economy, China drives demand around the world in commodities, consumer goods and other sectors.

The government has been trying to increase growth through stimulus measures and interest rate increases. It has tried to control the slide in the renminbi, by tapping its vast pool of foreign currency reserves. And it has moved aggressively to prop up the stock market with a series of policy actions.

But the latest economic data — and stock market tumult that followed — cast doubts on whether those efforts are working.

Despite the government’s moves, Chinese manufacturing has been steadily contracting for 10 straight months. The Caixin purchasing managers’ index for December, compiled by the market data firm Markit, fell to 48.2, well below expectations and lower than the reading in November. Any rating below 50 indicates a contraction.

Chinese demand is particular worrisome for commodity producers around the world, which have been hurt by the country’s economic slowdown. On Monday, Anglo American’s shares closed down about 7 percent, while Glencore’s were down 5.8 percent.

The pressure on the renminbi is further feeding investors’ concerns.

As the Chinese economy pulls back, the country’s companies and individuals have been looking for opportunities overseas, outflows that have weighed on the renminbi. The situation is complicated by the United States Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates, which makes it more attractive to keep money in dollars.

While China’s central bank has signaled it is willing to allow the currency to weaken, it must also control the slide, otherwise it risks spooking the markets. On Monday, the central bank set the renminbi at its lowest level since May 2011.

“The People’s Bank of China needs to be careful while making a fully flexible exchange rate,” said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. “It cannot create a one-way bet for renminbi depreciation. If they were to do that, we would run into an out-of-control scenario like we saw in the second half of last year.”

The government’s stock stabilization plan is also playing into the market sell-off.

A new rule, which went into effect on Monday, suspends trading in the major mainland markets when the CSI 300 index of blue-chip shares falls 5 percent during a session. The circuit breaker kicked in Monday, triggering a temporary halt.

Analysts indicate that the suspension might have ledinvestors to later dump shares, which then brought on a halt for the day. Since trading was halted, it could mean more losses ahead, if investors remain nervous.

Another measure, a six-month ban on major shareholders’ offloading stocks in Chinese-listed companies, expires at the end of this week. The policy was imposed to stabilize share prices last summer. But now it could be having the reverse effect, leading those with smaller holdings to sell before larger shareholders do.

Hao Hong, chief strategist at the Bank of Communications International, predicted that the tough start to 2016 could continue.

“Volatility tends to beget volatility. It will more likely than not spill over to other asset classes,” he said. “Given we had such dramatic volatility, it’s really too early to see the bottom, especially now that the fundamentals are looking so ugly.”

 

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