瑞信(Credit Suisse)的数据表明，按购买力平价计算，总体上新兴市场货币对美元的折价已经从2011年的40%大幅回升至逾60%。
大宗商品超级周期始于2002年。这一超级周期已经结束而且不会再次出现，因此，相关货币回落到2002年水平似乎是自然而然的，如果不是跌得更低的话，”布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman)新兴市场货币策略全球主管Win Thin表示。
“在整个大宗商品热潮期间，每个人都说（新兴国家的）基本面大好，各国做了正确的事情。我认为我……低估了大宗商品效应。”
加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)新兴市场和全球外汇策略主管丹尼尔?特南戈泽(Daniel Tenengauzer)持不同观点。在2002-12年大宗商品牛市期间，“许多（新兴市场）经济体都有经常账户盈余，”他说。
“它们极为严格地实行通胀目标制，并增强各自的资产负债表，无论是外部的还是国内的，因此它们在积累储备。”
特南戈泽说，如果大宗商品不是这些经济体表现强劲背后的唯一因素，大宗商品价格暴跌无法解释新兴市场货币的全面回调。“（进入新兴市场的）资金流引发了资源错配。”
然而，在他看来，新兴市场货币的大幅下跌不是问题。“当宏观环境开始恶化的时候，存在一种机制，即疲软的汇率。这是解决方案的一部分，而不是一个问题。”
Win Thin表示，墨西哥、智利、台湾、波兰、捷克和菲律宾等国家和地区在大宗商品热潮期间“做了正确的事情”。“它们没有浪费所有这些钱；它们把一些钱存起来以备不时之需。”
他说，一些国家和地区因此避免了最糟糕的贬值。相对于今年走强的美元，新台币仅下跌2.8%，捷克克朗、波兰兹罗提和菲律宾比索的跌幅在5%以下，而墨西哥比索和智利比索则出现双位数的跌幅。
瑞信表示，一些货币看上去便宜得反常。根据瑞信对货币估值和债务脆弱性的分析，该行从南非、马来西亚和印度看到了机会。
特南戈泽也看好印度卢比，并表示墨西哥比索和印尼盾“看起来开始变得有吸引力”。
但他表示，中国和巴西这两个大型新兴经济体的货币依旧高估了约10%。他说，就目前而言，考虑到这两个国家的重要性，市场对这两大经济体的信心还将继续拖累人们对整个新兴市场的展望。（中国进出口网）
Emerging market currencies, excepting the Chinese renminbi, have given up all their gains since 2002, which marked the start of the commodities upturn, raising the question of whether the strong performance of developing economies during 2002-13 was all about commodities after all.
Data from Credit Suisse show that EM currencies at large have returned to a discount of more than 60 per cent to the dollar in purchasing power parity terms, a sharp rebound from the 40 per cent discount in 2011.
“The commodity supercycle started in 2002. That supercycle has ended and it’s not coming back, so it seems natural that we should be seeing a return to 2002 levels if not beyond,” said Win Thin, global head of EM currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “
“During this whole commodity boom, everyone was saying it’s great fundamentals [in EMs], countries doing the right thing. I think I?.?.?.?underweighted the commodity effect.”
Daniel Tenengauzer, head of EM and global FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, takes a different view. During the commodity bull market of 2002-12 “many [EM] economies were operating current account surpluses”, he says.
“They were implementing inflation-targeting regimes very strictly and strengthening their balance sheets, both external and domestic, so they were accumulating reserves.”
The commodity price slump could not explain the full retracement in EM currencies if it was not the only factor behind the upswing, Mr Tenengauzer said. “The flows of funds [into EMs] triggered resource misallocation.”
But, to Mr Tenegauzer, the slump in EM currencies is not a problem. “When the macro picture started to deteriorate there was a mechanism, a weak exchange rate. It’s part of the solution, not a problem.”
Mr Thin says some countries, such as Mexico, Chile, Taiwan, Poland, the Czech Republic and the Philippines, “were doing the right thing” during the boom years. “They didn’t waste all this money; they tucked some away for a rainy day.”
As a result, he said, some were avoiding the worst of the sell-off, with the Taiwan dollar down just 2.8 per cent against a resurgent greenback this year, and the Czech koruna, Polish zloty and Philippine peso off less than 5 per cent, though the Mexican and Chilean pesos had suffered double-digit declines.
Credit Suisse said some currencies appeared abnormally cheap. based on its analysis of currency valuations and debt vulnerability, the Swiss bank saw opportunities in South Africa, Malaysia and India.
Mr Tenengauzer also looks favourably on the India rupee, and says the Mexican peso and Indonesian rupiah are “starting to look attractive”.
But he says the currencies of two largest emerging economies, China and Brazil, each remain about 10 per cent overvalued. Given their importance, sentiment towards these two giants would continue to sour the wider EM outlook for the time being, he said.
