研究人员称，到2020年中国将成为世界最大跨境投资者，全球离岸资产将增至现有水平的三倍，即从目前的6.4万亿美元增至近20万亿美元。
由经济研究公司荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)和柏林墨卡托中国研究中心(Mercator Institute for China Studies)联合发表的一份报告表示，虽然上述总数中的相当大一部分将以外汇储备和组合投资为形式，但中国对西方发达国家的直接投资将占据越来越大的份额。
根据其他国家的经验，中国在全球的对外直接投资(FDI)存量（包括对企业兼并、收购和初创企业的投资）将从7440亿美元增至2020年的高达2万亿美元。
该报告的预测是有价值的，因为来自中国及其对外直接投资目的地国家的官方跨境统计数据被广泛视为质量低劣，不能准确反映实际投资流动。在短短10年里，中国的对外直接投资从几乎为零增至每年1000亿美元，使它成为全球三大直接投资输出国之一。
欧洲特别欢迎中国方面的出手阔绰，尤其是在全球金融危机爆发和欧元区经济增长陷入低迷之后。
然而，该报告警告说，来自中国的投资大幅增长，也将需要此类投资的目的地市场和政治人物改变态度，以在充分利用机遇的同时遏制风险。
“中国经济的规模、增长和互补等特征，为欧洲带来一些独特机遇，”报告作者们表示。
“与此同时，有关中国政治和经济制度性质的某些具体关切，比如补贴，比如中国的威权政治体制以及中国本身对（外商直接投资）缺乏开放性，也带来一些特殊的挑战。”
虽然早期的中国对外投资集中于发展中国家的能源和自然资源资产，但投资者目前转向美国和欧洲物色机会。
2000年至2014年期间，中国企业斥资460亿欧元，在欧盟28个国家进行了1047项直接投资，其中大部分交易是在2008-09年全球金融危机爆发以来做成的。
英国遥遥领先地得到了最多的中国对外直接投资，在上述期间累计得到122亿欧元。德国位居第二，得到69亿欧元，法国排在第三位，得到59亿欧元。
中国对欧洲的直接投资在2011年和2012年都超过70亿欧元，2013年回落至60亿欧元，但在2014年强劲反弹，创下140亿欧元的纪录。
欧洲的能源、汽车、食品和地产等行业吸引了最多的中国资金。
中国的对外直接投资尽管近年迅猛上涨，而且未来预测令人头晕目眩，但实际上中国仍在努力追赶。
“中国如此独特如此重要，因为它已经是一个重要的全球投资者，并有望成为未来10年全球FDI增长的最重要驱动因素，”该报告称。
尽管中国是世界上最大的商品贸易国，但其2011年在全球金融跨境资产及负债所占份额只达到3.4%。
China will become the biggest cross-border investor by the end of this decade, with global offshore assets tripling from $6.4tn at present to nearly $20tn by 2020, say researchers.
While much of the total will be in the form of foreign exchange reserves and portfolio investment, a growing share will come from direct Chinese investment in western-developed countries, according to a joint report by the economic research company Rhodium Group and the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies.
based on the experiences of other countries, China’s global stock of outbound foreign direct investment, which includes investing in corporate mergers, acquisitions and start-ups, will increase from $744bn to as much as $2tn by 2020.
The report’s projections are valuable because official cross-border outbound FDI statistics from China and recipient countries are widely seen as being of poor quality and do not give an accurate picture of real investment flows. In barely a decade, Chinese outbound FDI has gone from almost nothing to $100bn a year, making it one of the three biggest exporters of direct investment globally.
Europe, in particular, has welcomed the Chinese largesse with open arms, especially in the wake of the global financial crisis and sluggish eurozone economic growth.
However, the report warns that surging Chinese investment will also require a change in attitude from recipient markets and their politicians to take full advantage of the opportunities and contain the risks.
“Characteristics such as the size, growth and complementarity of the Chinese economy create unique opportunities for Europe,” the report’s authors said.
“At the same time, some specific concerns that are related to the nature of China’s political and economic system, for example subsidies, China’s authoritarian political system and lack of openness to [foreign direct investment] in China, create particular challenges.”
While early Chinese investments focused on energy and natural resource assets in developing countries, investors are now looking to the US and Europe for opportunities.
Between 2000 and 2014, Chinese companies spent 46bn on 1,047 direct investments in the 28 EU countries, with most of the transactions coming in since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.
The UK is by far the biggest recipient of Chinese direct investment, with a cumulative total of 12.2bn over that period. Germany is second with 6.9bn and France third with 5.9bn.
Following a dro in 2013 to 6bn, from more than 7bn each year in 2011 and 2012, Chinese investment in Europe came surging back in 2014, reaching a record high of 14bn for the whole year.
Europe’s energy, automotive, food and real estate sectors attracted the most Chinese money.
Despite the recent sharp rise and heady predictions for Chinese outbound investment in the future, the country is still trying to catch up.
“China is so unique and important because it is already a major global investor and it has the potential to become the single most important driver of global FDI growth over the next decade,” the report said.
While China is the world’s biggest trader of goods, its share of global financial cross-border assets and liabilities barely reached 3.4 per cent by 2011.
Today, its stock of outbound FDI as a proportion of gross domestic product stands at just 7 per cent, compared with 38 per cent for the US, 20 per cent for Japan and 47 per cent for Germany.
