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印度经济3年左右将赶超中国?

India's Economy Overtaking China’s in around Three Years?

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核心提示:印度在就任刚满百日的印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导下,开始重新焕发活力。
印度在就任刚满百日的印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导下,开始重新焕发活力。

鉴于中国经济增长率有放缓至7%的趋势,预言印度经济增速或许会超越中国不再显得荒诞不经了。

印度最大资产管理公司HDFC共同基金的主管普拉尚特•贾殷(Prashant Jain)表示,印度在几年后就将超越中国,成为全世界增长速度最快的大型发展中经济体。

讽刺的是,莫迪跟印度经济此次反弹关系不大,甚至可以说毫无关系。

本次反弹更应该归功于一年前上任的印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行长拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan),他采取措施抑制通胀,帮助重振商界信心。

然而,印度在整体上信心回归要归功于莫迪。他在5月以压倒性多数胜出、当选总理,他那种目标明确、毫不含糊的的作风,以及支持企业的名声,都提升了市场信心。

尽管如此,人们仍有充分理由对印度突然强劲起来的增长步伐保持警惕。经济学家警告称,要达到更严格的财政赤字目标,莫迪将不得不进一步减支。因此在未来几个季度,印度经济很有可能再次回落。

人们在将印度与中国相比的时候也更加谨慎,只是预言印度的增长率将逐渐趋近中国。以前,人们曾宣称印度的经济模式将被证明比中国更先进,得益于印度更年轻的人口结构、印度的民主体制、以及英语普及程度。事实证明这些预言错得如此离谱,以至于没有多少人会重提。(中国进出口网
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India's Economy Overtaking China’s in around Three Years?

India became resurgent under the leadership of Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, just taking office for one hundred days.

Given China's economic growth has slowed to 7%, it no longer seems absurd that India’s economic growth will surpass China’s.

Prashant Jain, the manager of India's largest asset management company HDFC Mutual Fund said, India will overtake China in the next few years, to become the world's fastest growing major developing economies.

Ironically, there is little relationship between Modi and the Indian economy rebound, or even there is no relationship.

The rebound should be attributed to Raghuram Rajan who is the governor of the Reserve Bank of India and took office one year ago. he took measures to curb inflation and help revive business confidence.

However, India’s overall confidence return thanks to Modi. His won an overwhelming majority of support in May and was elected prime minister. Resorting to his clear objectives, unambiguous style and support-for-corporate reputation, Modi improves market confidence.

Nevertheless, people still have good reasons for India's sudden surge to remain vigilant. Economists warns that in order to reach more stringent fiscal deficit goal, Modi will have to further cut public spending. Therefore, in the next few quarters, the Indian economy is likely to fall again.

People become more cautious when comparing India with China, but predicted that India's growth rate will gradually be closer to China. Previously, people had claimed that India's economic model will be proved more advanced than China’s, thanks to a younger demographic in India, India's democratic institutions, as well as English pervasiveness. These predictions proved so outrageous that there are not many people repeating.

 

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